The U.S. economy would not necessarily go into recession with oil at $100 a barrel but consumers would feel the pain and the economy would slow further, Standard & Poor's said on Thursday.
Analysts at the New York-based ratings and financial research company emphasized they are not forecasting oil at $100 a barrel, but the steady rise in crude prices over the last three years and the fear of potential supply disruptions has created the situation where it is at least imaginable.
"The good news today is that we feel even a $100 price would not result in a U.S. recession," said David Wyss, S&P's chief economist. But "the U.S. is more vulnerable today than it was a couple of years ago because the economy is slowing down."
U.S. crude oil for September delivery was trading near $74.50 on the New York Mercantile Exchange early Thursday afternoon.
Wyss already forecasts a drop in U.S. economic growth to 2.5 percent in 2007 from 3.5 percent in 2005 and 2006.
Higher oil prices would shave at least another 1 percent off the 2007 forecast, Wyss said.
That would leave the Federal Reserve facing the dilemma of both slowing growth and evidence of inflation as rising oil prices fed through the economy.
All it would take is a major hurricane, an attack on a production or loading facility, or political or military action that prompts a large producer such as Iran to stop production to push oil prices higher, S&P said.
INDUSTRY IMPACTED
Some industries would be more affected than others.
The oil industry should do better with higher oil prices unless there was a large drop in overall demand.
Automakers would be harder hit. Oil at $100 can only be considered a negative for the U.S. automakers as well as their suppliers, said Bob Schulz, S&P's automotive analyst, as a weakening consumer would prompt an aggregate drop in demand across the industry.
It would also impact automakers' credit risk as they tried to increase profitability and regain market share.
Airlines, where fuel accounts for one-third of operating costs, would have to rely on raising prices to offset higher energy prices, said Philio Baggaley, transportation and airline analyst. That would be problematic at a time of less demand in line with an overall slowing economy.
"The airlines would be caught in a squeeze, with costs going up and passenger demand faltering in a slowing economy," Baggaley said.
Ground transport companies would be in a better position as they could pass on higher costs as surcharges, something railroads have done successfully in recent years.
Chemical companies could also remain reasonably immune to higher oil as long as supply and demand factors enabled producers to pass costs onto customers through price increases, the firm said. But should demand fall in line with an overall economic slowdown the industry would not escape a cyclical downturn.
The bigger question is how long the consumer will keep spending.
S&P said that while consumer spending has held up reasonably well despite the rise in energy prices and interest rates of recent years, fuel costs are making an impact on spending because higher gasoline prices are no longer viewed as temporary.
Among retailers, discounters and fast food restaurants are likely to be hardest hit with crude prices at $100 a barrel because they cater to lower-income earners, the firm said.
Analysts at the New York-based ratings and financial research company emphasized they are not forecasting oil at $100 a barrel, but the steady rise in crude prices
"The good news today is that we feel even a $100 price would not result in a U.S. recession," said David Wyss, S&P's chief economist. But "the U.S. is more vulnerable today than it was a couple of years ago because the economy is slowing down."
U.S. crude oil for September delivery was trading near $74.50 on the New York Mercantile Exchange early Thursday afternoon.
Wyss already forecasts a drop in U.S. economic growth to 2.5 percent in 2007 from 3.5 percent in 2005 and 2006.
Higher oil prices would shave at least another 1 percent off the 2007 forecast, Wyss said.
That would leave the Federal Reserve facing the dilemma of both slowing growth and evidence of inflation as rising oil prices fed through the economy.
All it would take is a major hurricane, an attack on a production or loading facility, or political or military action that prompts a large producer such as Iran to stop production to push oil prices higher, S&P said.
INDUSTRY IMPACTED
Some industries would be more affected than others.
The oil industry should do better with higher oil prices unless there was a large drop in overall demand.
Automakers would be harder hit. Oil at $100 can only be considered a negative for the U.S. automakers as well as their suppliers, said Bob Schulz, S&P's automotive analyst, as a weakening consumer would prompt an aggregate drop in demand across the industry.
It would also impact automakers' credit risk as they tried to increase profitability and regain market share.
Airlines, where fuel accounts for one-third of operating costs, would have to rely on raising prices to offset higher energy prices, said Philio Baggaley, transportation and airline analyst. That would be problematic at a time of less demand in line with an overall slowing economy.
"The airlines would be caught in a squeeze, with costs going up and passenger demand faltering in a slowing economy," Baggaley said.
Ground transport companies would be in a better position as they could pass on higher costs as surcharges, something railroads have done successfully in recent years.
Chemical companies could also remain reasonably immune to higher oil as long as supply and demand factors enabled producers to pass costs onto customers through price increases, the firm said. But should demand fall in line with an overall economic slowdown the industry would not escape a cyclical downturn.
The bigger question is how long the consumer will keep spending.
S&P said that while consumer spending has held up reasonably well despite the rise in energy prices and interest rates of recent years, fuel costs are making an impact on spending because higher gasoline prices are no longer viewed as temporary.
Among retailers, discounters and fast food restaurants are likely to be hardest hit with crude prices at $100 a barrel because they cater to lower-income earners, the firm said.
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